Tools & Accessories Industry Report
April 2021
Exploratory Data Analysis
Distribution of the Response
Correlation between Covariates and Response
| Avg Pct Change | Sd Pct Change | Avg Vol | Pe Ratio | Price to Sales Ratio | Price to Book Ratio | Price to Fcf Ratio | Debt to Equity Ratio | Pays Dividend | Dividend Yield | Response | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| min | -1.7% | 0.6% | 448 | 0.00 | 0.040 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0% | -1.240 |
| first_quart | -0.1% | 1.3% | 12900 | 8.28 | 0.380 | 0.76 | 6.33 | 0.530 | 0.000 | 0% | 0.143 |
| median | 0.1% | 1.8% | 310000 | 12.90 | 0.690 | 1.32 | 13.40 | 0.830 | 1.000 | 1.7% | 0.485 |
| mean | 0.1% | 2.1% | 477000 | 16.50 | 0.878 | 1.77 | 20.70 | 0.971 | 0.725 | 1.7% | 0.463 |
| third_quart | 0.2% | 2.5% | 803000 | 18.70 | 1.080 | 2.19 | 21.00 | 1.400 | 1.000 | 2.7% | 0.801 |
| max | 2.2% | 17.5% | 2770000 | 218.00 | 4.020 | 9.52 | 540.00 | 3.240 | 1.000 | 8.6% | 1.930 |
Model Tuning
Random Forest Models
Gradient Boosted Models
Final Models
Random Forest Model
Model Info and Metrics
- min_n: 1, mtry: 7
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.1371
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.2276
Gradient Boosted Model
Model Info and Metrics
- learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 7, tree_depth: 7
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.0114
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.0159
Future Predictions
| Company | Quarter | Price | RF Prediction | GB Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCX | 2020 Q4 | $3.49 | 132.83% | 135.17% |
| TTC | 2021 Q1 | $99.96 | 108.67% | 127.86% |
| LECO | 2020 Q4 | $109.53 | 105.48% | 115.73% |
| EML | 2020 Q3 | $19.31 | 83.88% | 116.21% |
| GFF | 2020 Q4 | $21.51 | 80.16% | 71.28% |
| ROLL | 2020 Q4 | $152.66 | 79.74% | 78.81% |
| TKR | 2020 Q4 | $68.1 | 76.79% | 95.74% |
| TBLT | 2020 Q4 | $0.79 | 56.85% | 96.29% |
| SNA | 2020 Q4 | $167.15 | 44.89% | 52.41% |
| CVR | 2020 Q3 | $20.78 | 43.9% | 37.46% |
| PFIN | 2020 Q4 | $4.86 | 32.08% | 43.32% |
| SWK | 2020 Q4 | $177.33 | 30.17% | 35.9% |
| KMT | 2020 Q4 | $34.36 | 24.77% | 29.11% |
