Tools & Accessories Industry Report

April 2021



Exploratory Data Analysis

Distribution of the Response

Correlation between Covariates and Response

Avg Pct Change Sd Pct Change Avg Vol Pe Ratio Price to Sales Ratio Price to Book Ratio Price to Fcf Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio Pays Dividend Dividend Yield Response
min -1.7% 0.6% 448 0.00 0.040 0.00 0.00 0.110 0.000 0% -1.240
first_quart -0.1% 1.3% 12900 8.28 0.380 0.76 6.33 0.530 0.000 0% 0.143
median 0.1% 1.8% 310000 12.90 0.690 1.32 13.40 0.830 1.000 1.7% 0.485
mean 0.1% 2.1% 477000 16.50 0.878 1.77 20.70 0.971 0.725 1.7% 0.463
third_quart 0.2% 2.5% 803000 18.70 1.080 2.19 21.00 1.400 1.000 2.7% 0.801
max 2.2% 17.5% 2770000 218.00 4.020 9.52 540.00 3.240 1.000 8.6% 1.930



Model Tuning

Random Forest Models

Gradient Boosted Models



Final Models

Random Forest Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • min_n: 1, mtry: 7
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.1371
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.2276


Gradient Boosted Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 7, tree_depth: 7
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.0114
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.0159




Future Predictions

Company Quarter Price RF Prediction GB Prediction
SCX 2020 Q4 $3.49 132.83% 135.17%
TTC 2021 Q1 $99.96 108.67% 127.86%
LECO 2020 Q4 $109.53 105.48% 115.73%
EML 2020 Q3 $19.31 83.88% 116.21%
GFF 2020 Q4 $21.51 80.16% 71.28%
ROLL 2020 Q4 $152.66 79.74% 78.81%
TKR 2020 Q4 $68.1 76.79% 95.74%
TBLT 2020 Q4 $0.79 56.85% 96.29%
SNA 2020 Q4 $167.15 44.89% 52.41%
CVR 2020 Q3 $20.78 43.9% 37.46%
PFIN 2020 Q4 $4.86 32.08% 43.32%
SWK 2020 Q4 $177.33 30.17% 35.9%
KMT 2020 Q4 $34.36 24.77% 29.11%